Why the Mets Have a Low-Cost Pitching Rotation and Why It Works

The New York Mets came into the 2025 season with a team payroll of over $320 million. After signing Juan Soto for $765 million in the offseason, many expected him to bolster a strong lineup led by leadoff-hitting shortstop Francisco Lindor and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso. The Mets’ offense was projected to be one of the best in baseball. However, doubts about the Mets’ pitching staff, which accounts for only $40 million of the Mets payroll, started to emerge out of concern for having a balanced team.

Thus far, those who believed that the Mets would be a flawed, one-sided team have been proven wrong. The Mets have exceeded expectations with a record of 22-13, tied for third best in the majors with the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants. While their offense has been strong, it has been their pitching that has unexpectedly carried them this season, with a stellar starting rotation leading the way—boasting a league lowest earned run average (ERA) of 2.40 and allowing just nine home runs thus far.

Why on Earth do the Mets, one of the richest teams in baseball, only spend a small fraction of their payroll on their rotation? And why has it worked out so well for them?

This story is best understood in the context of the Steve Cohen era of Mets baseball. Cohen, a hedge fund billionaire with a net worth of $21 billion, bought the Mets after the 2020 season. Ever since, it has become clear that he is willing to spend large, and arguably egregious, sums of money on the team. In his introductory press conference, Cohen established that he was fully prepared to invest whatever it took to build a winning franchise. “I do believe the Mets are a major-market team and should have a budget that is commensurate with that,” Cohen said.

Cohen has certainly lived up to this commitment: the team has ranked in the top three for most expensive payrolls in baseball every season since his purchase—something the franchise had not done since the 20th century. In fact, early in his ownership, he was not as frugal in his spending on pitching as he is today, signing many expensive pitchers.

In Cohen’s first season as owner in 2021, despite having the third-highest payroll in baseball, the Mets still finished below .500. After that season, however, the Mets front office was able to revamp the team by investing in starting pitching. That offseason, the Mets signed veteran ace Max Scherzer to a three-year, $130 million dollar deal—the most expensive pitching contract in average annual value at the time. Younger starter Chris Bassitt, who was seeking arbitration as a member of the Oakland Athletics, was traded to the Mets who, upon his arrival, offered him an $8.8 million contract for 2022 with a $19 million option to continue with the Mets in 2023.

The following season ended up being the first dominant year for the Mets under Cohen, with the team winning over 100 games in 2022. While the 2022 team was credited as a better offensive team, their pitching, while not as comparatively dominant, was still impressive and laid the foundation for a stronger staff in the future. Scherzer, at 38 years of age, had one of, if not the most successful regular season campaigns of his career, putting an impressive ERA of 2.29. Bassitt maintained a 3.42 ERA and was credited for 15 wins. Then, Mets reliever Edwin Diaz emerged from the bullpen as one of the best—if not the best—closers in the majors. He led all qualified relievers with 118 strikeouts and set an MLB record for the most strikeouts per nine innings in a season by any pitcher with at least 60 innings pitched. Ultimately, the Mets were taken down by the San Diego Padres in the National League Wild Card Series. While it was a disappointing end to the season, the Mets remained strong and entered the offseason with a ready wallet and a dream to solidify themselves as a World Series contender.

Going into the 2023 season, the Mets re-signed multiple key players from their 2022 campaign, including Diaz and Lindor, to long-term, multi-million dollar contract extensions. The Mets also invested heavily in their pitching staff, signing seasoned ace Justin Verlander to a two-year, $87 million contract. Other notable additions included veteran starter Jose Quintana and Japanese forkballer Kodai Senga. 

That year, the team had the highest payroll in baseball history and therefore was expected to have a dominant regular season and a playoff run. However, these expectations fell short of reality; despite the momentum from 2022 and the money poured into the team, the Mets collapsed in 2023. With a record of 75-87, some referred to the 2023 team as one of the worst investments in sports history. The offense fell into stagnation, and the pitching was no better—the team had an ERA of 4.31 and walked 595 batters. Their most expensive pitchers, Scherzer and Verlander, had succumbed to injuries and were dumped by the Mets to cut their losses. Scherzer and Verlander were traded at the deadline, although the Mets continued to finance large portions of their contracts.

Leading into 2024, the Mets decided to shake things up within the organization, hiring young baseball executive David Stearns to become their new president of baseball operations. Over the years, Stearns had emerged as one of the top minds in baseball front offices—a pioneer of modern, technological approaches to help grow teams. Stearns helped the Milwaukee Brewers become yearly playoff contenders, despite financial constraints. Through new developments in analytics and the installation of a state-of-the-art pitching lab, Stearns was able to cultivate overlooked baseball players into a cost-efficient and effective major league roster. When the Mets hired Stearns, he was not expected to lead them to the playoffs, let alone a championship; rather, he was initially expected to implement strategies similar to those he used with the Brewers—strategies whose effectiveness would take time to assess. Stearns ended up using advanced analytics to implement his decisions in New York, helping the Mets install a pitching lab of their own at their spring training complex in Port St. Lucie, Florida. 

Since the Mets retained Scherzer’s and Verlander’s contracts, it became difficult for them to sign expensive, new players. Hence, Stearns decided to focus on cheap pitching in free agency. He opted not to trade Jose Quintana, who was injured for the first half of 2023 and was 3-6 in qualifying starts, instead hoping to try and improve him in-house. Stearns then brought in Luis Severino, an injury-prone reliever for the New York Yankees coming off a poor season, intending to convert him to a starting pitcher. Stearns also signed Sean Manaea, a seasoned starter of eight years in the majors, who never quite found major success anywhere. 

Nobody expected much of the 2024 Mets or their pitching staff. As far as the public was concerned, the team needed a year to recover from the catastrophes of 2023. Despite starting the year 22-33, the Mets flipped the script in June, starting a strong run and  ultimately making the playoffs. They defeated the Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies to reach the National League Championship Series, where they pushed the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers—who eventually won the championship—to a tough six game series.

A contribution to the Mets’ turnaround was rooted in the evolution of a successful rotation. Using Stearns’ new pitching lab and other innovative technologies, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, already considered as one of the top pitching minds in the game, was able to transform the Mets’ pitching staff into a strong rotation. Quintana held down a decent 3.75 ERA and was the starter for two of the Mets’ series-clinching wins in the playoffs. Severino, after putting up a 6.65 ERA in 2023, remained healthy and brought his ERA down to 3.91, completing a shutout against the Miami Marlins. Manaea was arguably the most impressive pitcher of the staff that year, leading Mets pitchers with 12 wins, holding down a 3.47 ERA, and striking out a career record 184 batters.

Leading into the offseason, the Mets’ perspective on investing in pitching had significantly evolved. Knowing that they were capable of developing a strong pitching staff in-house, they decided not to spend big on pitching. Despite multiple aces like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried hitting free agency, the Mets opted not to chase them. Instead, they re-signed Manaea, brought in Clay Holmes—a choke-prone Yankees closer (intending to convert him to starting pitcher)—and signed Griffin Canning, a Los Angeles Angels starter who had the worst ERA of all qualified pitchers in the majors last year. While Manaea had already established himself in Queens, Holmes and Canning were very controversial signings. However, through the use of advanced analytics and mechanical information, the Mets were able to justify their signings. Holmes’ high groundball rate attracted the Mets’ attention; Stearns felt that he would be a strong addition to the rotation. Canning, despite having a high ERA, still had a decent fielding independent pitching rating—a metric designed to measure the success of pitchers on all balls not hit into play and home runs. Additionally, spending less on pitching allowed the Mets to make a high enough offer to sign star outfielder Juan Soto—something they wouldn’t have ordinarily been able to finance. 

In the 2025 season thus far, these changes to the rotation have largely paid off. In seven starts, Clay Holmes is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA. Canning is even better at 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA. In other words, the Mets took a faltering closer and arguably last year’s worst starter and turned them into sub-three ERA machines.

There are also things to say about the pitching lab’s impact on returning pitchers. Tylor Megill—who was 4-5 with a 4.04 ERA last year—is now 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA. Kodai Senga—who only played one game last year due to injuries—is now 3-2 with a microscopic 1.38 ERA and is in the conversation for National League Comeback Player of the Year.

The reason why the Mets, one of the league’s wealthiest teams, have a cheap rotation is the same reason why it works so well: David Stearns and Jeremy Hefner do not need big names to get big results. Through analytics, technology, and a focus on development, the Mets have built a cost-efficient rotation that has shaken the baseball world.