The Rise of the Fallen Quarterback

It’s been a typical NFL season so far. The Kansas City Chiefs have picked up right where they left off (although not without some help from the refs), the Carolina Panthers look just as bad as last year, and Sam Darnold is…good? He’s helped the Minnesota Vikings go from having a season that looked over before it started after J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury, to being undefeated and potential Lombardi contenders come February, and he has even been named September’s NFC Offensive Player of the Month.

Yes, this is the same Darnold who, two years ago, was backup quarterback for the Panthers. Last year with the San Francisco 49ers, he only showed his face to take snaps during garbage time. It’s not just Darnold who has found success after being traded: Baker Mayfield, who started over Darnold when on the Panthers, has been thriving on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the last two years; Derek Carr, who left the Las Vegas Raiders for the New Orleans Saints in 2023, has led a bad Saints team to putting up the second-most points in the first two games of a season; most recently, exiled Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is showing sparks of brilliance on the Pittsburgh Steelers. A little further back, and you find Jared Goff and Geno Smith’s moves to the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks, respectively, that have earned them both Pro Bowl nods and high praise.

This trend in failure-turned-superstar quarterbacks only raises questions about who is to blame when quarterbacks fail, and if quarterbacks should be written off so soon. When quarterbacks are drafted into the league, they’re tasked to lead a team of grown men—often with far more football experience than them—as 20-something year-old kids, a situation almost destined to fail. Not only that, but for those drafted in the top-10 picks, the teams that they’re expected to lead usually are drafting that high for a reason—they lack a solid supporting cast.

The most recent case of a “failed” rookie quarterback is Bryce Young. After giving up loads of draft capital to draft Young with the first overall pick in 2023, he was immediately expected to start and lead a Panthers team depleted of offensive talent. Young’s performance this year was so underwhelming that head coach Dave Canales opted to bench Young after Week 2 in favor of Andy Dalton, a 36-year-old veteran whose glory days are long over. Like quarterbacks before Young, far too many have declared him to be a bust. Number two overall pick C.J. Stroud’s stellar rookie year on the Houston Texans certainly hasn’t helped matters, and the constant comparisons all point to Young being a draft bust. But that simply isn’t true. He was thrust into a poor position with limited weapons, and didn’t have time to sit on the bench to learn the ropes. The Panthers did bring in receiver Diontae Johnson this summer, but he’s only cracked 1000 receiving yards in a season once in his career. Young’s other targets are Adam Thielen, an aging veteran (although he did break 1000 yards last season), and rookie Xavier Legette, whose production has been disappointing at best. These weapons are a far cry from Stroud’s who had a clear WR1 in Nico Collins and a WR2 in Tank Dell. The Texans looked to further Stroud’s growth this season by trading for veteran Stefon Diggs, effectively establishing one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. When considering Young’s environment, sitting behind the veteran Dalton may be what he needs in order to take off as the star he was touted to be.

Arguably the second-best quarterback in the league right now, Josh Allen started on the same rocky road as Bryce Young. Taking over for Nathan Peterman in Week 2, he ended up starting 11 games but failed to bring the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs for the second year in a row. His interceptions drew lots of criticism, and his run-happy gameplay sparked concern over the longevity of his career. Fast forward to now, and he’s thrown 0 interceptions through Week 5, led the Bills to four consecutive AFC East Division Titles, and reached the AFC Championship game. After being written off by so many, his achievements are a perfect example of why time is crucial for quarterbacks’ development.

It’s so rare that we see a quarterback succeed immediately, but when it happens, it puts expectations on other quarterbacks to do the same. In recent years, the only rookie quarterbacks who found success are Stroud, Justin Herbert, and Brock Purdy—albeit Purdy started as the third-string. Almost all of the best quarterbacks in this league right now needed around a year to find their feet: Patrick Mahomes sat a year behind Alex Smith, Jalen Hurts behind Carson Wentz, and Jordan Love behind Aaron Rodgers.

The fact is, the manner in which teams treat their rookie quarterbacks is just as important as how talented they are. Teams without an offensive line to protect the quarterback, experienced and talented weapons, and a knowledgeable coaching staff should sit the future of their organization for their own good. You can see the New England Patriots right now, and how they are—were—treating the future of their franchise in Drake Maye. Sitting behind veteran Jacoby Brissett was the right move, and if it hadn’t been for Brissett’s dreadful performances in recent weeks, Maye would still be sitting behind him.

NFL organizations need to start treating their rookie quarterbacks in a more sensible way. While there certainly will be situations where all the stars align and it makes sense to start a rookie (see C.J. Stroud), most of the time, it’s best to let rookies develop. There isn’t a perfect formula for when to sit vs. start rookie quarterbacks, but there are definitely measurable qualities such as work ethic and leadership that Stroud had from the get-go that enabled his strong start. The success of all these once-failed and written off quarterbacks is only evidence that sometimes, it’s not the quarterback, and it’s simply the environment they’re in. Except Daniel Jones. He wouldn’t succeed on the Niners.