Roki Sasaki Could be MLB’s Next Ace

Roki Sasaki is one of the most alluring pitchers available on the current free agent market. The 23-year old phenom is already a two-time Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) All-Star and pitched an impressive perfect game in his five-year professional career with the Chiba Lotte Marines. In his 2022 season, he boasted a 2.02 ERA and a 0.796 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), incredible numbers that rival and surpass the best pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB) like Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. His main pitches include a nasty 100 mph four-seam fastball and a splitter with a 51.5 percent strikeout rate in 2023. 

            During my vacation in Japan last summer, I was lucky enough to attend a Marines game where Sasaki was the starting pitcher. As I walked into the stadium, there was an uproar of cheers as Sasaki took the mound. Half the stadium was wearing his jersey and they began chanting his name in earnest, trumpets blaring over their voices. I sat in the outfield, where there is a section designated for people playing instruments and leading chants. Each player has a unique song dedicated to them which fans sing as they come up to the plate. Sasaki’s entrance in particular was filled with anticipation and excitement as the whole stadium rose from their seats to start chanting. 

Sasaki may perform exceptionally well in NPB, but many question whether his talents would translate to the MLB, where the level of competition is generally higher and more diverse. His 2023 performance in Japan’s World Baseball Classic win, however, showcases the effectiveness of his pitching. In his appearance against Mexico in the semi-final of the WBC, he consistently threw fastballs surpassing 100 mph. With incredible movement at the plate, he struck out hitters and helped lead Japan to its historic final against the USA. Japan’s manager Hideki Kuriyama remarked on Sasaki’s performance in the WBC, saying “it’s as if he is throwing his soul, not the baseball.” Sasaki’s extraordinary pitching ability clearly sets him apart from other players.

The recent announcement that Sasaki would be posted by his NPB team, the Marines, for a 45-day period to sign with a MLB team for the 2025 season sent shockwaves through the league. His exceptional talent has not gone unnoticed by many MLB teams in need of starting pitchers. James Dykastra, a former Chicago White Sox pitcher and a teammate of Sasaki when on the Marines, has seen his pitching firsthand and shares the high regard many have for him. Reflecting on Sasaki’s pitching, Dykastra remarked, “I came back from watching that bullpen and said, ‘This is probably one of the greatest pitchers I’ve ever seen live.’” Teams will have a 45-day period to persuade Sasaki to sign with their team. The timing of his posting means that he will be classified as an amateur free agent by MLB, which will considerably limit the price of offers that he will be able to receive by MLB teams. This means he is subject to the international bonus pool, where teams like the Dodgers, Orioles, and Yankees have the most money to offer him. Sasaki’s situation is similar to Shohei Ohtani, who signed with the Angels in 2017 with a bonus of $2.3 million. Like Ohtani, Sasaki’s affordability under these rules makes him a very attractive prospect for many MLB teams, as his talent far exceeds the price constraints of his initial contract. 

However, Sasaki’s health is a major concern for teams looking to potentially sign him. He has struggled with injury throughout his career, having pitched 100 innings in only one of his seasons. He has had multiple arm injuries in the past, and Tommy John surgery (a procedure to repair or reconstruct a torn UCL in the elbow) seems inevitable for him in the future, like many other pitchers who struggle to stay healthy. His injuries strongly correlate to the taxing mechanics of his pitching and the incredible speed he throws at. He may seek to sign with a team that will provide him the resources necessary to mitigate injury, especially bigger market teams that can afford the newest technology and pitching development.

Among the teams who are likely to sign Sasaki during the winter meetings this year, the reigning World Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers, stand out in the list of candidates. Sasaki has played with both pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani during the WBC, two players that bring incredible star talent to the Dodgers. With the Dodgers trying to continue winning, Sasaki seems like he would be a great fit for the team. The 2024 Dodgers looked unstoppable, and Sasaki’s addition would only cement their position as a powerhouse team in current baseball. 

However, several factors could complicate a potential move to the Dodgers. Sasaki would face immense pressure playing alongside two Japanese superstars in a high-profile market. Alternatively, he might consider the San Diego Padres, a team that would greatly benefit from his talent on the mound. In San Diego, Sasaki would still be in a large market but with less media attention, offering him a better opportunity to establish his identity in MLB. The New York Mets are also a potential option for Sasaki, having just signed Juan Soto on a record breaking deal and with Steve Cohen more than willing to spend on the team. 

Things may play out differently in the coming weeks as negotiations begin, but no matter what team Sasaki ends up playing for, he is sure to attract excitement and attention. The 23-year old still has many years left in his baseball career, and if he can stay healthy, his pitching is sure to bring results.