Midterm Elections: Blue Wave or Silent Majority

The upcoming midterms in 2018 will be decisive in shaping what the next two years of Trump’s presidency will look like. If the Democrats manage to reclaim enough seats in Congress, impeachment could become a real threat for President Trump. If Republicans are able to expand on their Senate majority, largely due to a very favorable electoral map, and maintain their House majority with Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker of the House, the country may be faced with the further repeal of Obamacare, the passage of funding for the border wall, and much of Trump’s policy agenda being implemented. Whatever your political convictions, these midterms will have a significant impact on the future of the country.

The existence of a “blue wave” seems to be strongly backed by recent election results. Democrat Conor Lamb’s nail-biting victory over Rick Saccone in a district that voted for Trump by a margin of 20 points and Doug Jones’s victory over Roy Moore in Alabama last year seem to suggest that Republicans are losing popularity, even amongst Trump’s own base. Factor in the high number of GOP retirements, ranging from Trey Gowdy to Speaker Paul Ryan, and it seems as if it would take a miracle for Republicans to maintain a majority in the House. However, these predictions are overwhelmingly hyperbolic, irrational, and premature.

With Paul Ryan, the Republicans will lose a tireless advocate for entitlement and tax reform as well as a man with loads of experience on economic policy. However, Ryan recognized that he was not the right person to be Speaker of the House, even showing reluctance before taking the post. Ryan’s retirement, although poorly timed due to the significance of the upcoming midterms, could turn out to be beneficial for the Republicans since his replacement, Kevin McCarthy, has been a consistent supporter of Trump and is less likely to be subject to criticism from the Tea Party and a grassroots base than Paul Ryan was as an establishment figure. McCarthy seems like the ideal person to unite the base along with the establishment and build a strong coalition capable of winning elections.

Many Democrats point to the generic congressional ballot, where the Democrats have a 6.5 percent lead, and the fact that the incumbent party has gained seats only once during midterms in the last 50 years is an indicator that the Democrats will likely take the House in 2018. While these are not unreasonable points, it is too early to claim that they point to a wipeout in November. After all, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls by 25 points in March of 1980 and eight points a couple of weeks before the election; but he ultimately won with a 10-point landslide in November.

Every political pundit and poll had Thomas Dewey, the Republican candidate, beating incumbent Harry Truman in 1948, but Truman ended up winning by a convincing 303 to 189 margin in the Electoral College as well as a four and a half point victory in the popular vote. Nothing can be taken for granted in politics. Although the Democrats have history on their side, momentum can shift very quickly. More significant legislation passed by Congress, details proving Trump’s innocence in the Mueller investigation, or more Democratic contempt for what Trump calls “middle America” are all examples of changes that can be used to the advantage of Republicans during midterms.

Other than having a promising leader in McCarthy, the Republicans have many accomplishments to tout. Chief among them is tax reform legislation, which is estimated to lower taxes for 80 percent of Americans this year according to the Tax Policy Center. Furthermore, 64 percent of Americans earned a wage increase of three percent or more with no wage decrease in 2017, far better than the 15 percent of people with a three percent wage increase and 19 percent with a wage decrease in the previous year, statistics that have been almost unreported in the media. GDP growth is approaching three percent, with 2.6 percent being the latest annual estimate in the fourth quarter of 2017.

In the National Association of Manufacturers’ quarterly outlook survey, optimism among small manufacturers has risen to 94.5 percent, the highest in the poll's history. As if these statistics aren't enough to encourage people to vote Republican, Hillary’s recent comments in India claiming that Trump’s campaign was “looking backwards” and that his supporters were motivated by displeasure with “women getting jobs” or “blacks getting rights” show the contempt Democrats have for what they perceive to be bigoted middle-class Americans.

This attitude will further alienate potential Democratic voters. In addition, while the radical nature of the March for Our Lives and a recent op-ed by former Chief Justice John Paul Stevens calling for a repeal of the Second Amendment may be popular among younger people and the media, they won’t lead to better election results. This is exactly what happened in 1972, when what Nixon called the “silent majority” opposed the radical, left-wing agenda of George McGovern, the Democratic candidate, and delivered a huge 520 to 17 electoral landslide in which McGovern only won Massachusetts.

The radicalism and overt contempt of the Democratic Party toward mainstream, middle-class Republicans will likely draw a strong conservative turnout and result in the Republicans maintaining the House by roughly 15 seats (the current margin is 23) and extending their majority in the Senate to five seats, helping them defy expectations once again, like they did in 2016.